Architectural and training efficiency is what lets a latecomer reach the frontier, so scarce compute is not disqualifying.
4 source(s) assert this claim, 1 deny it.
Who asserts it
- Our position on open-weights models
dario-amodei-position-open-weights-models-2026-07-27 - DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng Breaks His Silence
liang-wenfeng-transcript - Four to One: Auditing the Leaked DeepSeek Notes
ryan-cunningham-four-to-one-deepseek-notes-2026-08-06 - Zhang Peng: Zhipu AI IPO and the Road to AGI — Zhang Xiaojun Interview Full Transcript
zhang-peng-zhipu-ipo-interview-2026-01-07
- **We should not sell powerful chips or chipmaking equipment to China**, and we should crack down on the rampant [smuggling](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/three-charged-conspiring-unlawfully-divert-cutting-edge-us-artificial-intelligence)[^3] and workarounds used to obtain access to such chips. China has limited domestic production capacity, and therefore, due to the [scaling laws](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361), cannot build more powerful models than the US without US chips.
Another reason cost goes lower is: the lower the cost, the more I can train larger models, the more I can afford larger models. On the same compute, when compute is limited, if my computational efficiency is higher, I can afford larger models.
Does size matter? I think so. But it is not a guarantee of supremacy. I think this is more closely correlated to a model's performance-per-dollar - especially if they're already at the performance frontier on an absolute basis. We've already seen in other industries (NEVs in particular) how well this objective function performs in 内卷 dynamics. It seems to me an ecosystem like this creates conditions suitable for energy-compute apex predators: organisms that survive brutal domestic competition on thin margins, but with abundant infrastructure resources.
Who denies it
- China, Open Source & AI Competitiveness | Andrew Ng
andrew-ng-open-source-ai-competitiveness-2026-07-29
10:19 So it is clear that we have great technical innovations in America and China has great technical innovations. In fact many of the US frontier labs are actively reading a lot of the open research that the Chinese labs published. I mean you have to be dumb not to. So American labs are definitely benefiting from tons of Chinese research lab innovations. I think the concept that distillation is a major factor has been overstated, vastly overstated. There's a question of what the world should consider fair.
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